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| 基于多指标评价的南流江流域气象-水文干旱传播特征研究 |
| Propagation characteristics of meteorological-hydrological drought in Nanliu River based on multi-indicators |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-21 修订日期：2025-06-04 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 干旱频率 滞后时间 响应时间 传播阈值 南流江 |
| 英文关键词:drought frequency lag time response time propagation threshold the Nanliu River |
| 基金项目:环北部湾广西水资源配置工程重大科研课题,广西重点研发计划项目(AB25069398) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 干旱传播特征是干旱领域的研究热点之一。明晰不同类型干旱的传播时间和临界条件，对流域抗旱调度及应急管理具有重要意义。本文根据南流江流域1961—2022年降水及主要水文站的逐日平均流量数据，采用SPI和SRI分别表征气象干旱和水文干旱，并基于干旱滞后时间、响应时间和传播阈值等指标，定量评估流域气象-水文干旱传播的持续时间和严重程度。结果表明：①流域SPI和SRI变化基本一致，重旱及以上等级气象干旱的发生频率高于水文干旱；②流域水文干旱对气象干旱敏感性较高，响应速度快。博白站和常乐站干旱平均滞后时间分别为0.3和0.6个月，响应时间皆为2个月；③博白站和常乐站干旱历时传播阈值分别为2.3个月和1.8个月，干旱烈度传播阈值分别为0.7和2.2。研究结果可供广西沿海地区旱灾防御参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Investigating drought propagation characteristics has become a major focus in drought research. Clarifying the propagation time and critical conditions of different types of drought is of great significance for drought-resistant regulation and emergency management within the basins. Based on precipitation data and the daily average flow of major hydrological stations in the Nanliu River from 1961 to 2022, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) are used to represent meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Through parameters like drought lag time, response time, and propagation thresholds, this study quantifies the duration and severity of meteorological-hydrological drought propagation within the basin. The results show that:①The variations in SPI and SRI exhibit a high degree of consistency, with hydrological droughts occurring more frequently; however, the occurrence of extreme and severe meteorological droughts is more frequent; ②The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought shows a lag effect, with average lag times of 0.3 months at Bobai station and 0.6 months at Changle station, and a response time of 2 months at both stations; ③The drought duration propagation thresholds for Bobai Station and Changle Station are 2.3 months and 1.8 months, respectively, while the drought severity propagation thresholds are 0.7 and 2.2, respectively. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for early drought prevention and mitigation efforts in Guangxi’s coastal region. |
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