基于Copula函数的区域雨潮遭遇风险概率分析
Research on the joint probability of rainstorm and tidal level in Yihan District, Yangzhou City, based on the Copula function
投稿时间:2024-03-16  修订日期:2024-05-22
DOI:
中文关键词:  雨潮遭遇  边缘分布函数  Copula函数  最大熵原理  风险率
英文关键词:Rain Tide Encounter  Edge Distribution Function  Copula Function  The Maximum Entropy Principle  Risk Rate
基金项目:扬州大学研究生科研与实践创新计划资助项目、国家自然科学基金资助项目(52109036,42201128,42301026)
作者单位邮编
汪海航 扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000
李帆* 扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225000
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中文摘要:
      随着气候变化、人类活动影响加剧以及城市化进程等一系列事件的加快,我国的城市内涝问题日渐突出。以扬州市仪邗区域为例,由于扬州南濒长江,受长江洪水、潮水顶托,当面临暴雨等灾害时,仪邗区域无法快速外排,进而增大了内涝风险。针对内涝灾害的研究也因此成为了重要内容。本文利用Copula函数构建了研究区域最大三日面雨量和长江最大三日平均潮位的联合概率分布函数,并对不同雨潮组合情况下的遭遇概率进行分析,最终得到了雨潮的联合风险概率和同现风险概率。最终结果显示,Copula函数在拟合雨潮联合概率分布方面表现良好。这一拟合结果不仅可以为解决仪邗山洪在长江高水位时出路不足的问题提供一定的理论支持和科学依据,也可以为其他感潮河段的防洪决策提供参考。
英文摘要:
      With the aggravation of the climate change, human activities, and accelerated urbanization, urban waterlogging has become an increasingly prominent issue in China. For example, the city of Yangzhou, located in the south along the Yangtze River, is affected by Yangtze River floods and tidal waves, which hinder the rapid discharge of flash floods when facing disasters like heavy rainstorms., thereby increasing the risk of waterlogging. Thus,research on waterlogging disasters has become an important focus in this area.This study utilizes Copula function to construct a joint probability distribution function for the maximum three-day rainfall in the study area and the average three-day maximum tidal level of the Yangtze River. The encounter probability of different combinations of rainfall and tidal waves is analyzed, and the joint risk probability and co-occurrence risk probability are obtained. The results show that the Copula function fits the joint probability distribution of rainfall and tidal waves well. The fitting results can not only provide theoretical support and scientific basis for solving the problem of the inadequate drainage routes for flash floods in Yihan during high water levels of the Yangtze River, but also serve as a reference for the flood control decision-making in other tidal river sections.
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