曹翔,汝楠,董志强,马传华,刘慧,胡宏昌.鸭绿江流域历史及未来降水时空演变特征分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2024,22(6):601-611 |
鸭绿江流域历史及未来降水时空演变特征分析 |
Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of history and future precipitation in the Yalu River basin |
投稿时间:2024-08-09 |
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20240150 |
中文关键词: 集合数据 趋势检验 小波分析 气候变化 周期特征 |
英文关键词:data of dataset tendency test wavelet analysis climate change periodic characteristics |
基金项目:水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022056) |
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中文摘要: |
鸭绿江流域横跨中国与朝鲜两国,该流域的降水等气候要素变化对预防洪水和干旱风险至关重要。然而,目前关于该流域降水特征的研究,尤其是基于最新气候变化模式CMIP6的成果较少。本文基于ERA5-Land再分析数据集和最新的CMIP6中8个模式、3个情景的降水数据,采用M-K检验和Morlet小波分析方法,分析鸭绿江流域历史和未来降水特征。结果表明:(1)该流域朝方侧历史时期(1950—2022)多年平均降水量略高于中方侧,流域内年降水无显著变化趋势。(2)流域历史降水存在29年和49年两个周期,其中49年为第一主周期。(3)流域未来(2025—2100年)年降水呈显著增加趋势,且存在由东南到西北逐渐减小的空间分布特征,朝方侧年降水大于中方侧,且未来近期(2025—2060)和远期(2065—2100)年降水变化趋势存在明显差异。(4)未来三个情景的年降水周期特征较为接近,第一主周期均为52年。研究可丰富基于CMIP6的研究成果,为鸭绿江流域的防洪抗旱管理提供科学参考。 |
英文摘要: |
The Yalu River Basin is a transboundary basin between China and North Korea.Changes in climate elements such as precipitation in this basin are crucial for preventing flood and drought risks.However,there are currently few studies on the precipitation characteristics of the basin,especially based on the latest climate change model CMIP6.Based on the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset and precipitation data from 8 models and 3 scenarios in the latest CMIP6,this paper uses the M-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis methods to analyze the historical and future precipitation characteristics of the Yalu River basin.The results show that:(1) The multi-year average precipitation on the North Korean side during the historical period (1950-2022) is slightly higher than that on the Chinese side,and there is no significant change trend in annual precipitation within the basin.(2) There are two cycles of 29 years and 49 years in the historical precipitation of the basin,of which 49 years is the first main cycle.(3) Annual precipitation in the basin will show a significant increasing trend in the future period of 2025 to 2100,and there is a spatial distribution characteristic that gradually decreases from southeast to northwest.The precipitation on the North Korean side is greater than that on the Chinese side,and there are obvious differences in the change trends of annual precipitation in the near future period of 2025 to 2060 and the far future of 2065 to 2100.(4) The annual precipitation cycle characteristics of the three scenarios in the future are relatively close,and the first main cycle is all 52 years.This study can enrich the research results based on CMIP6 and provide a scientific reference for flood control and drought relif management in the Yalu River basin. |
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