宁阁,苏冬阳,高春杰,苏澳,卢德喜.超采区浅层地下水数值模拟及预测分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2024,22(3):283-297
超采区浅层地下水数值模拟及预测分析
Numerical simulation and predictive analysis of shallow groundwater in overexploited areas
投稿时间:2024-01-02  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20240001
中文关键词:  大同盆地  浅层地下水  地下水超采区  数值模拟  预测分析
英文关键词:datong basin  shallow groundwater  groundwater overdraft area  numerical simulation  predictive analysis
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51679260);山西省水利科学技术研究与推广项目(2022GM039)
作者单位E-mail
宁阁 太原理工大学 水利科学与工程学院, 山西 太原 030024  
苏冬阳 太原理工大学 水利科学与工程学院, 山西 太原 030024 78042220@qq.com 
高春杰 山西省河津市水利局, 山西 河津 043300  
苏澳 太原理工大学 水利科学与工程学院, 山西 太原 030024  
卢德喜 太原理工大学 水利科学与工程学院, 山西 太原 030024  
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中文摘要:
      超采区的地下水变化趋势分析对于区域水资源可持续管理具有重要意义。本文以大同盆地浅层地下水超采区为研究对象,分析了含水层结构和地下水的补给、径流、排泄条件,明确了潜水含水层为影响地下水变化的主要区域。基于GMS与MODFLOW软件,建立了大同盆地潜水含水层各向同性非均质二维非稳定流模型,利用实测地下水流场对模型进行了验证,开展了未来不同场景条件下地下水位预测模拟与分析。结果表明,大同盆地2010—2019年平均地下水开采量(6.0861亿m3)大于2001—2016年平均地下水补给量(5.6254亿m3),地下水位下降趋势明显。若地下水开采量下降至2019年开采量的85%,至2035年平均地下水位可回升11.6 m,恢复速度约0.68 m/a;若综合考虑未来水源替换工程,至2035年地下水位可显著回升,恢复速率可达1.4 m/a。本文研究成果可为大同盆地地下水管控提供科学依据,同时对于我国北方类似地下水超采区的水资源管理和评价具有一定参考价值。
英文摘要:
      Analysis of groundwater changes in overexploited areas is of great significance for sustainable management of regional water resources.This paper takes the shallow groundwater overexploited area in Datong Basin as the research object,analyzes the aquifer structure and the recharge,runoff,and discharge conditions of groundwater,and clarifies that the confined aquifer is the main region affecting groundwater changes.Based on GMS and MODFLOW software,a two-dimensional non-steady flow model of isotropic heterogeneous confined aquifer in Datong Basin is established.The model is validated using measured groundwater flow field,and groundwater level prediction simulations and analyses are conducted under different future scenario conditions.The results show that the average groundwater exploitation volume in Datong Basin from 2010 to 2019(608.61 million m3) exceeds the average groundwater recharge volume from 2001 to 2016(562.54 million m3),indicating a significant trend of groundwater level decline.If the groundwater exploitation volume decreases to 85% of the 2019 level,the average groundwater level can rebound by 11.6 meters by 2035,with a recovery rate of approximately 0.68 meters per year.If future water source replacement projects are comprehensively considered,the groundwater level can significantly rebound by 2035,with a recovery rate of up to 1.4 meters per year.The research results of this paper can provide scientific basis for groundwater management in Datong Basin,and also have certain reference value for water resources management and assessment in similar groundwater overexploited areas in northern China.
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