莫淑红,甄晓彤,陈丽丽,程龙,陈明康.基于abcd和Budyko模型的佳芦河干湿季径流变化归因分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(6):501-510,525
基于abcd和Budyko模型的佳芦河干湿季径流变化归因分析
Attribution analysis of dry and wet season runoff changes in the Jialu River based on abcd model and Budyko model
投稿时间:2023-03-30  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230053
中文关键词:  abcd模型  Budyko模型  季尺度垂直分解法  佳芦河  人类活动
英文关键词:abcd models  Budyko model  seasonal scale vertical decomposition method  Jialu River  human activities
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179024,U2040208);中国电建集团西北勘测设计院有限公司重大科技项目(XBY-ZDKJ-2020-01)
作者单位
莫淑红 西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048 
甄晓彤 西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048 
陈丽丽 江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司六安分公司, 安徽 六安 237000 
程龙 中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司, 陕西 西安 710065 
陈明康 西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048
深能阜平蓄能发电有限公司, 河北 保定 073200 
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中文摘要:
      河川径流变化受到人类活动和气候变化影响,探究其主要影响因素与影响过程是当前学科研究的热点问题之一。本文以陕北黄土高原区佳芦河为研究对象,采用 Mann-Kendall 线性回归法对干、湿季水文气象要素进行趋势分析;采用滑动F检验法、滑动T检验法和 Lee-Heghinian 检验法等进行径流变异性分析;采用 abcd 模型与基于扩展的 Budyko 模型的季尺度垂直分解法进行径流变化影响因素量化分析。结果表明:佳芦河流域干季和湿季降水均有不显著上升趋势,气温均呈显著上升,潜在蒸散发干季显著上升、湿季不显著上升,而干湿两季径流都具有显著下降趋势。干季和湿季径流序列分别在1972年和1984年发生突变。人类活动是佳芦河流域干季和湿季径流减少的主要原因,人类活动和气候变化对干季径流的影响分别为减少2.2 mm/月和增加0.07 mm/月,对湿季径流序列的影响分别为减少7.84 mm/月和增加0.92 mm/月。模型模拟效果较好,适用于佳芦河流域径流变化研究。
英文摘要:
      The change of river runoff is affected by human activities and climate change.It has become a hot topic to explore the main influencing factors and influencing process of runoff change.The paper takes the Jialu River as the research object.The Mann-Kendall and linear regression method are used to analyze the trend of hydro-meteorological elements.The double cumulative curves of precipitation and runoff,the sliding F-rank test,the sliding T-rank test and the Lee-Heghinian test are used to analyze the runoff variability.The quantitative analysis of seasonal scale was carried out using the abcd model and the extended Budyko model-based vertical decomposition method.The results show that the precipitation in the dry season and the wet season in the Jialu River Basin presents an insignificant upward trend,while the temperature has a significant increase.The potential evapotranspiration increases significantly in the dry season and does not increase significantly in the wet season.The runoff in both dry and wet seasons has a significant downward trend.The abrupt changes of runoff series occurred in dry season in 1972 and wet season in 1984.The model used in this paper has good simulation effect and is suitable for the study of runoff change in this basin.Human activities are the main reason for the decline in runoff in the dry and wet seasons in the Jialu River Basin.The impacts of human activities and climate change on dry season runoff decrease by 2[BF].[BFQ]2 mm/month and increase by 0[BF].[BFQ]07 mm/month,respectively,and the impacts on wet season runoff sequences decrease by 7[BF].[BFQ]84 mm/month and increase by 0[BF].[BFQ]92 mm/month,respectively.
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