| 程东,刘荣华,翟晓燕,赵宇,刘潇.基于中国山洪水文模型的山洪灾害预警指标实时动态分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(5):444-454 |
| 基于中国山洪水文模型的山洪灾害预警指标实时动态分析 |
| Real-time dynamic analysis of flash flood warning indicators based on China Flash Flood Hydrological Model |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-17 |
| DOI：10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230098 |
| 中文关键词: 中国山洪水文模型 动态预警 预警指标 山洪灾害 东河流域 |
| 英文关键词:China Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF) dynamic early warning early warning index flash flood disasters Donghe River Basin |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42271095，42171047);中国水科院基本科研业务费专项(JZ110145B0012021) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 程东 | 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 | | | 刘荣华 | 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 | liurh@iwhr.com | | 翟晓燕 | 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 | | | 赵宇 | 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 | | | 刘潇 | 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 山洪灾害具有突发性强、成灾快、破坏力大、人员伤亡多等特点，被公认为是世界上危害最大的自然灾害之一。为提高山洪灾害预报预警精度，综合考虑小流域暴雨洪水特征、前期降雨、上游产汇流过程以及土壤湿度动态变化等因素的影响，基于中国山洪水文模型(CNFF)模型分析法和设计暴雨洪水实时反算法，提出了基于中国山洪水文模型的小流域防灾对象预警指标实时动态分析方法，分析了防灾对象不同土湿和典型预警时段长的临界雨量动态变化过程。以江西省东河流域为例，评估了动态预警指标的精度。研究表明：(1)中国山洪水文模型在研究区具有较好的适用性，率定期和验证期的平均径流深相对误差和洪峰流量相对误差均在15%以内，平均峰现时间误差在1.5 h以内，平均Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.76和0.8，场次雨洪模拟合格率在90%以上。(2)以东河流域南泊村典型灾害事件为例评估了动态预警指标应用效果，基于动态雨量预警指标的实时动态分析结果相比原山洪灾害调查评价中静态预警指标结果提前1~2 h预警，有效延长了预警预见期。研究成果可为小流域山洪灾害预警提供理论支撑和技术支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness，rapid occurrence，high destructive power，and significant loss of life，making them recognized as one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world.In order to improve the accuracy of flash flood forecasting and early warning，this study proposes a real-time dynamic analysis method for warning indicators for disaster prevention objects in small watersheds based on China Flash Flood Hydrological Model(CNFF)model analysis method and a design rainfall-runoff real-time inverse algorithm.This method takes into account various factors that affect flash floods，including the characteristics of heavy rainfall and flooding in small watersheds，antecedent rainfall，upstream runoff convergence processes，and dynamic changes in soil moisture.The study analyzes the variations in critical rainfall thresholds for disaster prevention objects under different soil moisture conditions and typical durations of warning time.The accuracy of the dynamic warning indicators is evaluated using the example of the Donghe River basin in Jiangxi Province.The research findings indicate that：(1)The CNFF model demonstrates good applicability in the study area，with relative errors of average runoff depth and peak flow within 15% for both calibration and validation periods.The average error of peak time is within 1.5 hours，and the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients are 0.76 and 0.8，respectively.The qualification rate of rainfall-runoff simulations exceeds 90%.(2)The application effect of the dynamic warning indicators is evaluated using a typical disaster event in Nanpo Village in the Donghe River Basin.Compared to the static warning indicators used in the original investigation and evaluation of flash flood disasters，the real-time dynamic analysis results based on dynamic rainfall warning indicators provide an early warning of 1 to 2 hours in advance，effectively extending the warning lead time.The research findings provide theoretical and technical support for flash flood early warning in small watersheds. |
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