宾零陵,陈璇,徐奎,曹永强,穆杰.海河流域极端降水阈值确定与风险评估[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(5):422-433
海河流域极端降水阈值确定与风险评估
Determination of extreme precipitation threshold and risk assessment in Haihe River Basin
投稿时间:2023-05-30  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230108
中文关键词:  极端降水  阈值  危险性  脆弱性  风险评估  海河流域
英文关键词:extreme precipitation  threshold  hazard  vulnerability  risk assessment  Haihe River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51809192,51509179);宁夏回族自治区重点研发项目(2022BEG02020)
作者单位E-mail
宾零陵 天津师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387  
陈璇 天津师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 天津 300387
天津大学 地球系统科学学院, 天津 300072 
 
徐奎 天津大学 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300350 kui.xu@tju.edu.con 
曹永强 天津师范大学 京津冀生态文明发展研究院, 天津 300387  
穆杰 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心), 北京 100038 
 
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中文摘要:
      随着全球变暖,极端降水发生频率和强度不断增加,研究流域极端降水风险分布有利于防灾减灾措施科学制定。本文以海河流域为对象,基于30个气象站点1990—2019年逐日降水资料,采用去趋势波动法(DFA)、百分位法、Pearson-Ⅲ概率分布计算极端降水阈值,分区提出极端降水阈值建议并探讨其时空变化规律,进一步基于危害性和脆弱性指标分析流域极端降水风险。结果表明:海河流域极端降水阈值西北地区为45 mm,东南地区为65 mm;近30年来极端降水天数呈减少趋势,其中东南地区下降幅度更大,且极端降水发生概率存在东部沿海区和西部五台山、原平附近两个高值中心区;海河流域极端降水风险自东南部沿海向西北内陆逐渐降低,其中较高和高风险区主要位于滦河下游、北三河下游、大清河下游、子牙河和徒骇马颊河,低和较低风险地区位于北部山区。
英文摘要:
      With global warming,the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation continue to increase.Studying the risk changes of extreme precipitation in river basins is conducive to promoting disaster prevention and mitigation measures.Taking the Haihe River basin as an example,the extreme precipitation thresholds were calculated by detrended fluctuation method (DFA),percentile method and Pearson-Ⅲ distribution method based on the daily precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations from 1990 to 2019.Then proper threshold for each subregion is proposed and its spatio-temporal variation is analyzed.The risk of extreme precipitation in the basin was further analyzed based on the hazard and vulnerability indexes.The results show that ① the extreme precipitation threshold in the Haihe River basin is 45mm in the northwest and 65mm in the southeast.② The number of extreme precipitation days in the Haihe river Basin has a decreasing trend in the past 30 years,especially in southeast areas,and the probability of extreme precipitation has two high value centers in the eastern coastal area and the western Wutai Mountain plain areas.③ The risk of extreme precipitation in the Haihe River basin gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal areas to the northwestern inland areas.The higher and high risk areas are mainly located in the lower reaches of the Luanhe River,the lower reaches of the Beisanhe River,the lower reaches of the Daqinghe River,the Ziya River and the Tuhaimajia River,and the lower and low risk areas are located in the northern mountainous areas.
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