李娜,王静,王艳艳.长江中下游超标准洪水情景风险分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(5):403-411
长江中下游超标准洪水情景风险分析
Risk analysis of extraordinary flood scenarios in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
投稿时间:2023-05-17  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230095
中文关键词:  超标准洪水  气候变化  情景分析  洪水风险分析  长江中下游
英文关键词:excessive floods  climate change  scenario analysis  flood risk analysis  the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3006400,2022YFC3006403);长江联合基金项目(U2240203)
作者单位
李娜 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
王静 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
王艳艳 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
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中文摘要:
      流域发生超过其时现状防洪标准洪水的可能性和不确定性长期存在。未来气候变化和社会经济发展共同作用下,超标准洪水的影响会更加严重。本文针对长江中下游干流防洪区,综合采用情景分析、水文分析、洪水淹没和影响分析等方法,设定了未来到2035年、2050年和2100年的1000年一遇超标准洪水共9个情景方案,其中,3个未来年份情景下的降雨径流分别按较现状增加5%、10%和15%考虑。通过分析得出,在未来气候变化和社会经济发展组合情景下,长江中下游干流防洪区遇1000年一遇洪水,2035年、2050年和2100年淹没区受影响人口将由基准年(2020年)的1768万人分别增加到2888万人、3536万人和3065万人,经济损失将由基准年的12669亿元分别增加到30533亿元、52599亿元和87264亿元。淹没区受影响人口最多可达现状的1.52倍,直接经济损失最大可达现状的6.89倍。现状防御体系在面对未来超标准洪水情景时必将更加脆弱,分析结果可以为流域制定长期可持续的应对未来变化条件下的防洪减灾策略提供参考。
英文摘要:
      The possibility and uncertainty of occurrence of floods beyond the current flood control engineering system standard of river basin or extraordinary floods will exist for a long time.Under the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development in the future,the consequence of extraordinary floods will be more serious.Taking the flood control area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as study area,nine scenarios for the 1000-year return period exceeding flood control standard in 2035,2050 and 2100 are calculated,using scenario analysis,hydrological analysis,flood inundation and impacts analysis methods. Among them,the flood amount in the three periods are increased by 5%,10% and 15% respectively compared to current situation.According to the analysis results,the affected population in the inundated area in the flood control area of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will increase from 17.68 million in the base year(2020)to 28.88 million,35.36 million and 30.65 million respectively,and the economic losses will increase from 1266.9 billion RMB in the base year to 305.33 billion RMB,525.99 billion RMB and 872.64 billion RMB respectively,under the combined scenarios of future climate change and socio-economic development with 1000-year return period floods in 2035,2050 and 2100.The affected population and the maximum direct economic loss in the flood inundated area can reach up to 1.52 and 6.89 times the current situation respectively.The existing flood prevention system will be more vulnerable when facing future extraordinary flood scenarios.The analysis results can provide reference for the river basin to formulate long-term sustainable flood control and disaster reduction strategies to cope with the future changing conditions.
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