| 李传科,徐扬,鲁帆.基于逐步回归的地下水超采区水位预测及控制指标研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(4):360-368 |
| 基于逐步回归的地下水超采区水位预测及控制指标研究 |
| Study on water level prediction and control index of groundwater over-exploitation area based on stepwise regression |
| 投稿时间：2022-09-14 |
| DOI：10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20220345 |
| 中文关键词: 地下水超采 岩溶水 水位控制 逐步回归 丰枯变化 |
| 英文关键词:groundwater over-exploitation karst water water level control stepwise regression changes of wet and dry |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFC3000205）；广西省水利厅科技项目（201605，201506） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为确定丰、平、枯不同水文条件下岩溶区域地下水位的控制指标，本文基于地下水开采利用情况和地下水位动态变化特征的分析，构建基于逐步回归的地下水位统计预测模型，应用于广西南宁市宾阳县黎塘镇地下水超采区。研究表明：地下水开采量控制在实现区域采补平衡和填平历史超采引起的地下水亏空中已发挥重要作用。所建模型对区域地下水位的拟合效果较好，基于模型预测确定该超采区平水年控制埋深、最大控制埋深、最小控制埋深分别为4.97 m、5.47 m、2.26 m。与考虑地下水位自然波动特点确定的控制指标值对比表明逐步回归法的计算成果合理。本文成果为该区域地下水管控指标考核提供了依据，可供我国南方其他类似地下水超采区参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to determine the control index of regional groundwater level under different hydrological conditions, a statistical analysis model of groundwater level using stepwise regression method is constructed and applied based on the analysis of exploitation and utilization of groundwater and dynamic change characteristics of groundwater level in Litang Town, Binyang County, Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.The research results show that the groundwater extraction control has played an important role in achieving the balance between production and replenishment and filling the groundwater deficit caused by historical over-exploitation.The established statistical model has a good simulation effect on the regional groundwater level.Based on the model prediction, the annual control burial depth, maximum control burial depth and minimum control burial depth in the over-exploitation area of Litang Town are determined to be 4.97 m, 5.47 m, and 2.26 m, respectively.Compared with the control index value determined by considering the natural fluctuation of groundwater level, the result of stepwise regression method is basically reasonable.The results of this paper provide a basis for the assessment of groundwater management and control indicators in this area, which can be used as a reference for other similar groundwater over-exploitation areas in southern China, and has a good application value. |
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