鲁帆,杨姗姗,严登华,岳彩云.气候-水文变化对水力发电的影响预估综述[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2023,21(4):331-340
气候-水文变化对水力发电的影响预估综述
A review on assessment of projected impacts of hydro-climatic change on hydropower potential
投稿时间:2022-08-15  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20220330
中文关键词:  气候变暖  水文变化  水力发电  影响预估  整体适应
英文关键词:climate warming  hydrological change  hydropower  projected impact  overall adaptation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U2240201)
作者单位
鲁帆 中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038 
杨姗姗 中国水利学会, 北京 100053 
严登华 中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038 
岳彩云 西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局, 西藏 拉萨 850000 
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中文摘要:
      气候变化可能改变河川径流的均值、极值、过程及可利用量,从而影响流域水电工程的规划建设和运行调度。因此,预测评估未来气候-水文变化对水力发电的影响具有重要意义。本文在简要阐述气候-水文-水电三者纽带关系的基础上,总结了国内外相关文献中影响预估的技术流程、主要模型与方法,从区域与季节差异、不确定性、综合影响及适应性调控等三方面分析预估结果,探讨现有研究存在的不足,并结合中国气候变化与水电行业的实际特点,展望了未来研究重点。建议进一步加强水文极值事件对水力发电影响、高海拔地区水循环机理及演变趋势等基础研究,并在考虑电力需求与多能互补的前提下,开展气候变化影响下的综合风险预估和整体适应策略研究。
英文摘要:
      Climate change can alter the runoff in many aspects such as the mean value, extremes, hydrological process, and available water resources, which significantly affect the hydropower planning and management.Therefore, it is of great significance to predict and evaluate the impact of climate-hydrological changes on hydropower generation in the future.This paper briefly describes the relationship between climate, hydrology and hydropower.Based on a systematic literature review, this study summarizes the methodology that used to predict hydropower development.The predicted results have been analyzed in three aspects, including regional and seasonal differences, uncertainties, comprehensive impacts and adaptive regulation.Finally, this study discusses the shortcomings of current research.The key points in future research have been explored by considering the features of climate change and hydropower industry in China.It is recommended to further strengthen basic research, including:(1) the impact of extreme hydrological events on hydropower;(2) the mechanism and evolution of water cycle in high-altitude areas;(3) under climate change, studies should focus on the comprehensive risk estimation and overall adaptation strategy with the consideration of power demand and multi-energy complementarity.
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