李哲,吕娟,屈艳萍,张伟兵,苏志诚,马苗苗.清光绪初年山西极端干旱事件重建与分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2019,17(6):459-469
清光绪初年山西极端干旱事件重建与分析
Reconstruction and analysis of the extreme drought event in Shanxi Province in early years of Emperor Guangxu of the Qing Dynasty
投稿时间:2019-01-04  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.2019.06.009
中文关键词:  山西省  历史极端干旱  清代雨雪分寸记录  降水定量重建  干旱时空演变
英文关键词:Shanxi province  historical exetrem drought  snow-rainfall records in the Qing Dynasty  quantitative reconstruction of precipitation  spatial and temporal evolution of drought
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502404);中国水利水电科学研究院团队建设及人才培养类项目(JZ0145B752017)
作者单位E-mail
李哲 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
 
吕娟 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
lujuan@iwhr.com 
屈艳萍 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
 
张伟兵 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
 
苏志诚 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
 
马苗苗 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038
水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心, 北京 100038 
 
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中文摘要:
      基于清宫雨雪分寸记录和现代农业气象站资料,利用水量平衡原理与土壤物理入渗模型,定量重建了清光绪初年(1875-1878年)极端干旱背景下山西省95个县区的季、年降水量,验证了重建结果的可靠性。基于重建降水量,利用降水距平百分率干旱指数分析了极端干旱的时空演变过程。结果表明:在时间上,1875-1877年为连续三年大旱,且呈逐年加重趋势,其中,1877年为极端干旱年;季节性连旱明显,1875年夏秋冬连旱,1876-1877年夏秋连旱,其中1877年最为严重,出现全省性重旱、特旱。在空间上,干旱分布大致经历了由中东部地区和西部地区演变至北部,再到南部和中东部地区的过程,其中中东部和南部地区干旱最为严重。历史典型场次极端干旱事件的重建研究对于定量复原历史干旱事件具有重要的现实意义,在应对区域干旱巨灾风险方面具有重要的参考价值。
英文摘要:
      Based on the records of rainfall and snow from the archives in the Qing Dynasty (1875-1878AD) and the modern agricultural meteorological station data, and the water balance theory and the soil physical infiltration model were used to quantitatively reconstruct seasonal and annual precipitation in 95 counties of Shanxi Province against the extreme drought background in the early years of Emperor Guangxu in Qing Dynasty (1875-1878AD). Compared with the existing results, the reliability of the reconstruction results was verified. Based on the reconstructed precipitation, the drought index of the precipitation anomaly percentage (PA) was used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme drought. The research results show that:in terms of time,the period of 1875-1877 was a three-year drought,and it was increasing year by year. It was the most serious in 1877, an extremely dry year. The seasonal drought was obvious. In 1875, it was drought in summer-autumn-winter. In 1876 and 1877, drought of the summer-autumn was more serious. Specially in 1877,was the most severe,with heavy drought and extreme drought covering the whole province. In space, the drought distribution had experienced a process that had evolved from the central and eastern regions to the north and then to the south and central and eastern regions, with droughts occurring most severely in the central and eastern regions. The quantitative reconstruction of historical extreme drought events has important practical significance for the research of historical drought events,and important reference value in dealing with the risk of regional drought disasters.
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