张艳平,张双虎,周惠成,王海军.水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案优选研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2019,17(1):9-15,23
水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案优选研究
Research on schemes optimization of real-time dynamic controlling of limited reservoir water level in flood season
投稿时间:2018-04-25  
DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.2019.01.002
中文关键词:  水库汛限水位实时动态控制  方案优选  多目标  群决策  决策冲突
英文关键词:real-time dynamic controlling of limited reservoir water level in flood season  schemes optimal decision making  multi-objective  group decision  decision conflicts
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51709272)
作者单位
张艳平 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038 
张双虎 中国水利水电科学研究院, 北京 100038 
周惠成 大连理工大学, 辽宁 大连 116024 
王海军 水利部 水土保持监测中心, 北京 100055 
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中文摘要:
      水库汛限水位动态控制方案优选属多阶段多目标群决策过程,在水库调度中具有重要作用。针对水库汛限水位动态控制多目标的矛盾性,本文将基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型,应用于水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案优选,选取洪水资源利用率、保证率可靠度、调洪最高水位和最大下泄流量作为优选指标,并采用基于博弈论的组合赋权法将经验权重与数学权重融合,确定各指标权重。以大伙房水库为例,分析其汛限水位实时动态控制时,决策者不同偏好时的最优值。结果表明,采用该模型优选出的方案可以为决策者提供较为直观和合理的决策依据。
英文摘要:
      Dynamic controlling schemes optimal selection of limited reservoir water level in flood season is a muti-stage and muti-objective group decision making progcess. Because of the contradictoriness of muti-objective in dynamic controlling of limited reservoir water level in flood season,the negotiation multi-objective group decision-making model is utilized for real-time dynamic controlling of limited reservoir water level in flood season. Utilization of flood resources,reliability of assurance rate,the highest flood level and the maximum discharge flow are selected as indicators. The weight of each indicator is determined by combination weighting method based on Game theory,combining experience weight with mathematical weight. Dahuofang Reservoir is taken as an exemple, trying to seek out the optimal value in real-time dynamic controlling of limited reservoir water level in flood season. The results show that the decision values determined by the model can provide a more intuitive decision basis for decision makers.
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