| 张爱静,付意成.基于EKC曲线的浑太河流域水环境保护影响因素分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2017,(2):107-115,122 |
| 基于EKC曲线的浑太河流域水环境保护影响因素分析 |
| Influence factor analysis of water environment protection of Huntai River basin based on EKC Curve |
| 投稿时间：2016-12-26 |
| DOI：10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.2017.02.005 |
| 中文关键词: 环境库兹涅茨曲线 可持续发展 污废水排放 浑太河 |
| 英文关键词:EKC sustainable development waste water discharge Huntai River |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51409269） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 环境可持续发展是研究环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）学者探求的重要领域。本文基于两种不同的 EKC假定，借助面板数据法研究了浑太河流域 2003-2012 年期间水环境保护与经济社会可持续发展间的协调对应关系，分析结果表明：①依据EKC关系曲线，水环境恶化与社会经济发展水平提升间存在倒U形关系；②依据修改EKC关系曲线，水环境保护的可持续性与社会经济发展水平（HD）间存在倒U形关系，受水资源消耗、区域贸易开放度、人均GDP水平、污染物排放总量控制等因素制约。依托最小二乘法（FMOLS）和动态最小二乘法（DOLS），EKC 回归方程自变量 Y（人均 GDP）、Y2、E（人均水资源消耗量）、T（区域贸易开放度）、MAN（生产附加值）和 MH-DI（修正的社会经济发展指数）的系数分别为 1.988、-0.150、0.720、0.214、0.070 和 1.890。EKC 假定、社会经济发展水平（HD）和可持续度是制定有效水环境保护策略的关键因素。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Sustainable development becomes an important research field for scholars studying Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Based on two different EKC assumptions,the coordinated relation between water en-vironment protection and social-economic sustainable development in Huntai River watershed during the peri-od of 2003 to 2012 was studied using panel data method. ① Based on the EKC curve,there is an invert-ed U-shaped relation between water environment deterioration and improvement of socio-economic develop-ment level; ② Based on the modified EKC (MEKC) relation curve, there is an inverted U-shaped relation between sustainability of water environment protection and socio-economic development (HD). It is restrict-ed by water resource consumption, regional trade openness, GDP per capita and control regulations for to-tal pollutant emission. Based on the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the mean values for key factors of EKC,Y (GDP per capita), Y2, E (water re-source consumption per capita), T (regional trade openness), MAN (production added value) and MHDI (modified socio-economic development index) are 2.090,-0.150, 0.720, 0.216, 0.072 and 1.890, respec-tively. Therefore, EKC assumption, socio-economic development level (HD) and sustainability are key fac-tors for the preparation of effective water environment protection strategies. |
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