刘金华,倪红珍,汪党献,黄晓丽.基于CGE 模型的天津市水资源经济效果分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2012,(3):
基于CGE 模型的天津市水资源经济效果分析
Analysis of economic effects of Tianjin water resources based on CGE model
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  CGE模型  经济分析  ORANIG  政策分析  天津
英文关键词:CGE model  economic analysis  ORANIG  economic policy  Tianjin
基金项目:
作者单位
刘金华 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所北京100038 
倪红珍 中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所北京100038 
汪党献 水利部水利水电规划设计总院北京100011 
黄晓丽 中国灌溉排水发展中心北京100054 
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中文摘要:
      在ORANIG 模型基础上,将水资源作为生产要素之一纳入到CGE 模型体系中,构建了天津市水资源CGE模型。以天津市2007 年部门投入产出和水资源公报数据为基础,建立了水资源投入占用产出表,并在合理选择弹性系数基础上,针对天津市2007 年国民经济发展状况及水资源开发利用情况,设置多情景模拟,通过研究不同供水量变动的经济系统参数变化情况,评估了天津市水资源的经济效果。计算结果表明:(1)在2007 年科技发展水平及水资源开发利用条件下,水资源对GDP 的边际贡献量约为8.65 元/m3,边际贡献量随着供给量的增加而呈减少趋势;(2)水资源对国民经济的边际贡献量约为31 元/m3, 部门间边际贡献率差异较大, 其中,农业为0.8 元/m3,交通运输业为440 元/m3;(3)减少水资源供给量将提高除零售业的消费者价格,其中水生产与供应业的消费者价格受其影响程度最大;(4)减少水资源供给量将减少部门劳动力需求,其中,零售业减少倾向最强,每减少水资源供给量1 万m3,将导致劳动力需求减少28 人。本文模型体系及成果可为天津市制定和实施水资源政策提供数据参考。
英文摘要:
      The CGE model is an important tool for economic policy analysis on water resources. On the basis of ORANIG model, this paper builds the Tianjin CGE model by treating water resources as one of the factors of production; With input-output tables and water resources bulletin of Tianjin at the year of 2007 as the data source,the Tianjin water input-output tables have been established. By selecting the coefficient of elasticity reasonably and combing the situation of national economic development and water resources development and utilization in Tianjin in 2007, different scenarios based on various water supply are simulated using the CGE model, and the economic effect of the water resources in Tianjin is evaluated. The results show that:(1) with the level of technology development and exploitation of water resources in 2007,the marginal contribution to GDP related to water resources is about 8.65RMB/m3,the marginal contribution decreases with water supply increasing;(2) the marginal contribution to total output that relates to water resource is about 31RMB/m3, of which agriculture is 0.8RMB/m3, and the transport industry is 440RMB/m3;(3) excluding the consumer price of the retail sector output, the decreasing in water resources supply tends to improve the consumer price of the sector output, in which water production and supply industry suffered greatly;(4) the decreasing in water resources supply tend to reduce the requirement of labor,among all the sectors,the retail sector reduced with a highest tendency. The system and results of this paper provide a basic analysis platforms and decision-making reference for Tianjin in developing and implementing water policy.
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